AI / ML
Intraday market analytics · Three.js renderer
Bitcoin vs Bittensor — Since TAO Launch
Jan 2023 – Mar 2026 · Independent dual-axis · Daily closes
Bitcoin (BTC)
Bittensor (TAO)
BTC
12k
13k
13k
13k
13k
13k
14k
TAO
3.60
3.70
3.80
3.90
4.00
4.10
Jan '26
Feb '26
Mar '26
2026-01-012026-03-30
Scroll to zoom · drag to pan · drag slider handles to resize window
Regression Analysis63 trading days · 2026-01-01 – 2026-03-30
| Bitcoin (BTC) | Bittensor (TAO) | BTC – TAO Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Period Return | +6.4% | +5.6% | +0.8 pp |
| Slope β (%/day) | +0.141 | +0.186 | -0.046 |
| Std Error | 0.0108 | 0.0163 | 0.0195 |
| t-statistic | 13.06 | 11.47 | -2.35 |
| p-value | <0.001 *** | <0.001 *** | 0.002 ** |
| R² | 0.736 | 0.683 | 0.083 |
Daily return correlationr = 0.116p = 0.934 Weak positive co-movement
OLS regression of cumulative % returns vs. trading day index within the selected window. Significance: * p<0.05 · ** p<0.01 · *** p<0.001. Spread = BTC% − TAO% returns.
Spread Surface · BTC − TAOX → time within window · Depth → lookback horizon · Height + colour: cumulative spread %
TAO outperforming BTC
BTC outperforming TAO
Mean Reversion TestsBTC – TAO spread · 63 trading days
Augmented Dickey-Fuller
τ statistic-2.198
p-value0.211
Half-life4.2 days
CV: −3.43 (1%) · −2.86 (5%) · −2.57 (10%)
H₀: unit root (non-stationary)
Hurst Exponent (R/S)
Insufficient dataLo-MacKinlay Variance Ratio
| q | VR | Z | p |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1.050 | 0.39 | 0.697 |
| 4 | 1.030 | 0.13 | 0.900 |
| 8 | 0.632 | -0.98 | 0.327 |
VR < 1 = mean reverting · VR > 1 = trending
H₀: random walk (VR = 1) · on daily Δlog spread
Conclusion:No significant evidence of mean reversionADF half-life est. 4.2 days
ADF H₀: unit root — reject → stationary/mean-reverting spread. Hurst H<0.5: anti-persistent (mean-reverting), H=0.5: random walk, H>0.5: trending. VR H₀: random walk on daily log-return spread. * p<0.05 · ** p<0.01 · *** p<0.001.
Price RegressionTAO~BTC
63 obs · 2026-01-01 – 2026-03-30Call: lm(formula = TAO ~ BTC)
Residuals:
| Min | 1Q | Median | 3Q | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -0.19447 | -0.08515 | -0.0099083 | 0.08835 | 0.19777 |
Coefficients:
| Estimate | Std. Error | t value | Pr(>|t|) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (Intercept) | 0.13625 | 0.47528 | 0.287 | 0.9767 | |
| BTC | 0.0002903 | 3.6822e-5 | 7.884 | 7.24e-12 | *** |
Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1
Residual standard error: 0.1097 on 61 degrees of freedom
Multiple R‑squared: 0.5047, Adjusted R‑squared: 0.4966
F‑statistic: 62.16 on 1 and 61 DF, p‑value: 7.24e-12
OLS: daily TAO closing price ~ β·BTC closing price + c (raw USD). Estimates, SE, and residuals in TAO price units. Recalculates live as slider moves.